• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to footer
Zippy Facts Logo

Zippy Facts

Interesting Random Facts

  • Animals
  • Culture
  • Firsts
  • Food
  • Geography
  • Health
  • History
  • Inventions
  • Language
  • Mythology
  • Odds
  • People
  • Religion
  • Science
  • Space
  • Universe
  • World
You are here: Home / Science / How far ahead can weather forecasters predict the weather reliably?

How far ahead can weather forecasters predict the weather reliably?

June 25, 2020 by Karen Hill

When the National Weather Service forecasters use the term probability of precipitation, they mean that in ten instances of weather patterns similar to the one they are looking at, it rained five times.

The service keeps cumulative records, and the probability forecast is a statistic based on what has happened. For example, if a cold front is expected in mid-July in late afternoon, and it has rained seven out of ten times in such a situation, there is a 70 percent chance of rain.

The forecast covers precipitation at any time in a stated period, such as today, tonight, and tomorrow.

As to how far ahead it is practical to forecast, there’s a high degree of accuracy up to about three days. But after that, for four to seven days ahead, forecasts are less reliable.

Forecasters can also give a sense of what the weather might be like up to two weeks in advance as a trend — for example, wet or dry and warmer than normal or cooler than normal, based on a pattern that favors hot and dry or a pattern that favors cool and dry.

Related Facts

  • Where does the expression "to be ahead of the game" come from and What does to come out ahead mean?
  • Can Ground Hogs Predict Weather?
  • What Flower Can Predict the Weather?
  • What's "earthquake weather" and how can I use it to predict earthquakes?
  • Which Cat Could Predict the Weather?
  • Who Discovered Chaos Theory and Why is long term weather impossible to predict and forecast?
  • How do NASA and the USDA predict future crop yields using weather satellites?
  • What Does The Far Side Of the Moon Look Like and Why Are There So Many Crater Impacts On the Far Side?
  • How Far Do a Country's Boundaries Extend and How Far Up Into the Atmosphere Does the Air Space Extend?
  • How does weather and humidity affect how far sound travels?
  • What Is a Torpedo and Why Did Admiral David G. Farragut Say "Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!"?
  • How Was George Washington Carver America's First Environmentalist and How Were His Ideas Ahead of Their Time?

Filed Under: Science

About Karen Hill

Karen Hill is a freelance writer, editor, and columnist. Born in New York, her work has appeared in the Examiner, Yahoo News, Buzzfeed, among others.

Previous Post: « What determines the color of clouds?
Next Post: What are contrails and how do they form? »

Footer

Follow

  • Facebook
  • Flickr
  • GitHub
  • Google+
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • Medium
  • Pinterest
  • StumbleUpon
  • Tumblr
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

Categories

Accomplishments Animals Culture Firsts Food Geography Health History Inventions Language Mythology Odds People Religion Science Space Universe World Your Body

About

Zippy Facts empowers the world by serving educational content that is accessible to everyone.

A tribute to growing up, zippyfacts.com showcases interesting and unusual facts about the world.

Our mission is to use technology to facilitate knowledge transfer and sharing.

Copyright © 2021 Zippy Facts

  • About Us
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy